Insights Report
Report authors: Sophie Davies, Director of Research | Manon Roberts, Senior Manager | Freya Smith, Senior Analyst | Teresa Hulme, Analyst Hulme
Monday 2 December 2024
DOWNLOAD: Future trends in online fraud (PDF)
Crest Insights, the think-tank for the whole criminal justice system, has today published a new report looking at how the threat posed by online fraud may evolve in the future and calling for a more proactive and strategic approach to tackling it.
The report, ‘Future trends in online fraud’, funded by the Dawes Trust and conducted in partnership with Birkbeck, University of London Institute for Crime and Justice Policy Research, highlights the need for forward-thinking policy development to better anticipate and mitigate emerging fraud risks.
Based on an evidence review; 18 interviews with senior stakeholders from law enforcement, non-governmental organisations and academia; and workshops with fraud experts and members of the public, the report uses future thinking methods to explore possible future developments in online fraud. The findings are not predictions and do not aim to cover every scenario but instead are intended to stimulate discussion and promote long-term thinking.
Key themes include:
Increased digitalisation is likely to continue to expand opportunities for fraudsters, for example through the proliferation of the Internet of Things and immersive environments.
The proliferation of advanced technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) may further lower the barriers to entry for criminals and facilitate the automated production of realistic and personalised fraud attempts at scale.
The growth of global challenges such as global warming and pandemics could create more opportunities for fraudsters to profit from moral panic, instability, migration and societal polarisation.
The changing nature of fraud, including the increasingly blurred boundaries between fraud, other forms of serious and organised crime and disinformation, are likely to increase the threat and have implications for how we respond.
Existing and emerging technologies offer significant opportunities to prevent fraud, if leveraged effectively, for example by building in ‘security by design’.
Authors highlight how current policies and strategies are struggling to keep pace with the rapidly changing nature of fraud and call for the opportunities that new technologies present to be leveraged in the response to online fraud.
The report concludes the third phase of our research into online fraud and follows previous Crest Insights research which focused on the impact of online fraud on victims and the policy and practice landscape.
Manon Roberts, Senior Manager at Crest advisory and report author, said:
“As fraudsters ceaselessly and quickly adapt to technological changes and other societal shifts, current policies that aim to prevent and respond to online fraud often struggle to keep up. Our report considers how the threat of fraud may evolve in future, looking in particular at the role of increased digitalisation, the proliferation and advancement of technologies such as generative artificial intelligence, and global challenges such as pandemics and climate change.
To turn the tide against the onslaught of online fraud facing the general public, the focus needs to shift from reactive responses to a more anticipatory and strategic approach, helping to create a framework that can effectively address emerging threats in the digital landscape. The new Labour Government has pledged to introduce an expanded fraud strategy. If the Government is serious about cutting crime, it cannot ignore the evolving fraud landscape.”
If you would like to discuss Crest's research project on tackling online fraud, don't hesitate to get in touch. To find out more about the work of Crest Insights, click here.
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