Insights Report
Report author: Dame Sara Khan, Senior Advisor me
Monday 9 December 2024
Following the announcement by the Home Secretary of a counter-extremism review, a new report by Dame Sara Khan published today by Crest Insights calls on the government to radically rethink how it tackles extremism and protects democratic resilience.
“Societal Threats and Declining Democratic Resilience: The New Extremism Landscape”, funded by the Hofenung Foundation, evidences how the UK faces a chronic risk of democratic decline due to the spread of extremist narratives and conspiracies, growing societal threats and declining social cohesion.
Dame Sara, who was Lead Commissioner for Countering Extremism between 2018 and 2021 and the government’s Independent Adviser for Social Cohesion from 2021 to 2024, and Crest Insights reviewed existing evidence about extremism and what works to counter it, gathered views from UK and international experts across policing and security, academia, politics, civil society and human rights via a series of roundtables and interviews.
The report has identified a trend of increasing extremism across age groups and a broader mainstreaming of extremists narratives, with a “pick ‘n’mix” approach to different ideologies, a growing appetite for conspiracy theories and the normalisation of extreme misogyny. A review of existing research has found:
73% of 16-24 year olds have encountered hateful, violent, extremist or terrorist content on social media
45% of young men having a positive view of misogynistic influencer Andrew Tate
30% of 45-54 year olds believe it to be true the numbers of deaths from coronavirus was being deliberately reduced or hidden by the authorities
29% of people believed in the ‘great reset’, a conspiracy to impose a totalitarian world government during the Covid-19 pandemic
34% of those who primarily consumed news through traditional media believed in the Great Replacement Theory. This rose to 55% for those who obtained their news from Telegram.
One in ten (10%) of people shared the views of people who engaged in violent disorder and rioting during the summer and had sympathy for the use of violence against refugees
8% believe violent protest outside refugee accommodation was justified
The report identified a second trend of decreasing societal and democratic resilience which is contributing to a permissive environment extremists can exploit. The evidence review found:
The UK had the highest levels of polarisation between the political left and right in 2017-2022, outside the United States.
45% of people say regardless of the political party in power they almost never trust the government to put the nation’s interests first, up from 23% in 2020
Only 41% of people believe people living in their neighbourhood can be trusted
Out of 28 countries the UK is the least-trusting country in the world at 39%, having fallen from 43% in 2023. The UK also has the lowest level of trust in the media
The percentage of people who view Muslims has having “completely different” values has increased from 38% to 44% following the Southport violence
80% of British Jews feel less safe in Britain than before the October 7 attacks
43% of people chose “declining” and another 25% choose “weak” as words to describe modern Britain
The report identifies a ‘boiling pot’ of issues facing the government which is fuelled by socio-economic and political issues including the ongoing cost of living crisis, legitimate concerns about the scale and pace of immigration, global events, including the conflict in Gaza, and hostile foreign state interference.
Dame Sara said:
“The spread of extremist and conspiratorial narratives, persistent extremist actors, rising polarisation, severe distrust of our institutions and weakening democratic resilience is, among other things, contributing to an increased risk of gradual democratic decline and extremism being mainstreamed in society. This poses a long-term and chronic threat to the wellbeing and functioning of our democracy and requires a new and strategic approach.
“The government lacks a dedicated strategy to address declining democratic resilience and the mainstreaming of extremist and conspiratorial narratives. Relevant existing policies including the Prevent programme, counter-extremism, and social integration, have failed to prevent long-term extremism concerns or address what are now chronic trends. This is untenable. Nothing short of a radical approach is now needed in government policy to effectively address these emerging challenges.”
The report makes a number of recommendations to the government most notably:
Establishing a new Cabinet Office directorate to ensure Whitehall develops a much needed strategic and analytical approach in preventing democratic decline, building societal resilience and cohesion, and counter extremism and other related threats. This new directorate would co-ordinate work across different departments. Key responsibilities would include:
Building a comprehensive extremism, cohesion and democratic resilience analytical framework and assessment capability to identify hotspots and inform preventative measures
Develop and lead a long term strategy aimed at building democratic resilience, strengthening social cohesion and countering extremism
Other recommendations include:
Establishing a new legal and operational framework as outlined in the official report ‘Operating with Impunity’ (2021) to tackle the dangerous and persistent hateful groups and individuals who are currently able to radicalise individuals, propagate extremist narratives and undermine democracy
Reforming the Prevent programme, including amending its objectives so it solely focuses on stopping individuals being radicalised into terrorism and violent extremism. The Prevent Programme should have no responsibility for counter-extremism.
Dame Sara said:
“It would be tempting to limit reform to publishing a new counter extremism strategy, making minor adjustments to the Prevent programme and producing a social cohesion strategy. This would, however, represent outdated thinking and result in a continuation of a disjointed and siloed approach across government departments with continuing gaps in knowledge, policy and delivery. Such an approach will not meet the challenge that lies ahead.
“There is nothing to suggest that democratic vulnerability and social division will reduce on their own. On the contrary, global trends suggest economic pressures, global migration, and institutional distrust are likely to persist, while misinformation will continue to deepen societal divides. Both domestic and foreign actors can exploit these tensions to undermine social cohesion and democratic stability.
“This evolving threat requires a comprehensive new government strategy to protect and strengthen democratic institutions and social resilience. We believe a much wider cross-government approach is now required, driven by a new central function responsible for this policy and its coordinated delivery among different departments.”
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